In the worst-case scenario, how many people could perish worldwide due to COVID-19?

The figure of four million potential deaths worldwide due to COVID-19 reflects a grim assessment of the virus’s impact under the worst-case scenario, considering factors such as the spread of variants, healthcare system capabilities, vaccination rates, and public health responses. This projection takes into account both direct mortality from the virus and indirect effects, such as overwhelmed healthcare systems leading to increased fatalities from other conditions.

The basis for this estimation involves epidemiological models that estimate deaths under various conditions, and several studies have pointed toward high mortality numbers, particularly in scenarios where protective measures are minimal or ineffective. By this reasoning, while the other options represent lesser estimates, they do not encapsulate the severity that could be expected if the pandemic were to escalate unchecked or if global vaccination efforts failed substantially. These projections allow public health officials and policymakers to prepare and respond effectively to mitigate risks.